Thursday Things: Shock the Future Edition
23 January 2020. Vol 2 No 4. By Dan McGirt. #24
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I’ve got your future shock right here. Photo by mana5280 on Unsplash
2020 marks the 50th anniversary of Alvin and Heidi Toffler’s bestselling book Future Shock. Released in 1970, the book popularized futurism as a discipline, was one of the first to discuss the concept of an emerging “post-industrial society,” and gave us the term ‘future shock’ to describe the feeling of disorientation and psychological distress caused by rapidly accelerating changes in society, technology, the economy, and everything else. The Tofflers followed up with The Third Wave in 1980, and Powershift in 1990, along with several other books and many articles, interviews, and talks discussing their research, ideas, and insights about what the future might hold and how we could cope with so much change. Many government and business leaders around the world have been influenced by the Tofflers’ work, along with millions of readers, including me.
I decided to re-read all three of the books I mentioned above and see how they hold up — what the authors got right, and wrong. And what is still yet to be seen. I’m starting with the last one, Powershift (1990) and will go in reverse order. I’ll do a book report later. For now, I wondered if the anniversary of Future Shock will get much attention this year. There is a retrospective book called After Shock, to be released later this year, to include assessments of Future Shock’s legacy by Ray Kurzweil, David Brin and others. So I’ll keep an eye out for that.
In the meantime, I found a few retrospective articles that are worth a look:
‘Future Shock at 40: What the Tofflers Got Right (and Wrong)’: “They predicted the “electronic frontier” of the Internet, Prozac, YouTube, cloning, home-schooling, the self-induced paralysis of too many choices, instant celebrities, and the end of blue-collar manufacturing. Not bad for 1970.” (From 2010)
‘The Worst Is Yet to Come’: “Future Shock remains one of the most important books of the 20th century and remains an important roadmap to understanding what lies ahead as the “disease of change” gathers speed. Its warnings must not be ignored. Mankind must heed.”
‘4 Things Futurist Alvin Toffler Predicted About Work Back in 1970’ An article in Inc. following Alvin Toffler’s death in 2016 notes that he correctly foresaw, in 1970, the rise of the internet, the sharing economy, telecommuting, and businesses without formal structure.
My book suggestion this week: read Future Shock, if you haven’t. Read it again if you have. I believe the ideas the Tofflers first articulated in 1970, and elaborated upon in the following decades remain highly relevant for all our futures.
The 20 Most Important Startup Statistics. “Last year was a great year for startups, and 2020 is going to be even better, due largely to continued growth in wellness and high-tech.” This article pulls together from various sources some interesting, possibly surprising, and mostly encouraging statistics about startups and small businesses. A few of the highlights:
There were 30.7 million small businesses in the U.S. in 2019.
A 60-year-old startup founder is three times more likely to succeed than a 30-year-old founder.
79.7% of U.S. small businesses employ only the founder.
The number of health, beauty, and fitness startups increased by 34% in 2018.
53% of American startups have at least one woman in an executive position.
Immigrant entrepreneurs account for 25% of all new businesses in the United States.
About 60% of American entrepreneurs believe that artificial intelligence is the most promising technology for investments.
According to the latest survey, 60% of American entrepreneurs believe business conditions will improve compared to the preceding year.
Being a one-person small business owner myself — I’m both an occasional freelance writer and the founder of my own publishing company — I like to see small businesses and startups thriving. What about you? Have you ever had the startup bug? Are you a small business owner? Do you think things are looking up, as these statistics (for the most part) suggest?
Switching topics, a shout out to the heroic and hospitable wombats of Australia, who have been sheltering other animals from the cataclysmic fires there by sharing their apparently fireproof underground lairs: Wombats are the heroes of the Australian fires, sheltering animals in their burrows:
AMID ALL THE devastation caused by Australia’s bushfires, an unlikely hero has emerged: the wombat. Quite generously, wombats have reportedly been allowing other animals to take refuge in their homes, as they hide from the blazes that threaten their own habitats. Complex underground tunnels, created by wombats, have served as safehouses for other species like wallabies and echidnas, allowing them to survive an otherwise fatal situation.
Peter Hylands, a documentary filmmaker, visited the burnt landscape of the Cobargo Wildlife Sanctuary, and told Yahoo, “You’ve got animals that are completely unscathed and those must be the animals that have been under the ground, it’s the only explanation when the fire zones are so extensive.”
This sentiment is echoed by Wombat Rescue manager Yolandi Vermaak, who said, “At most, there would be animals fleeing into burrows. I’ve seen echidnas going into burrows — lizards, and skinks, rabbits — those sort of things. I have even seen a small wallaby.”
Come with me if you want to live. Source: Wikipedia
Wombats are the best!
Finally, we take you back to the past of the future. I always enjoy reading or watching old predictions of the future. Here is a documentary that accompanies the publication of Future Shock back in 1972. Just feel that groovy future shock! With your host, Orson Welles.
Thank you for reading Thursday Things. See you next Thursday … in the future!